Interview with Israel Shamir, a
well-known independent observer and political
commentator.
http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/03/20/47702668.html
France’s
air force has destroyed some tanks and armed vehicles in
Libya, as confirmed by French Defense Ministry’s
official. Meanwhile, Gaddafi has expressed his
discontent at the intervention by French forces and has
wowed that he and his supporters are willing to die
rather than to submit. And with us today, commenting on
this breaking news, will be Israel Shamir, a well-known
independent observer and political commentator.
US defense
officials tell Reuter that the US navy has three
submarines in the Mediterranean preparing for operations
in Libya, and France’s air force has destroyed some
tanks and armed vehicles in Libya, and this has been
confirmed by French defense minister. Al-Jazeera had
reported earlier that 4 Libyan tanks were destroyed to
the south-west of Benghazi. What is your information on
the current situation in Libya at this point?
Actually,
they destroyed 4 Libyan government tanks. And now there
is also a report that a Libyan airplane was brought
down, and it seems to be that the airplane was the jet
belonging to the rebels. Not that they intended to do
it, but that’s what happened. Now, in Tripoli, they
celebrate the surrender of Benghazi to the government
troops. Now, they are going through some certain time of
total confusion. On the one hand, the government forces
say that Benghazi surrendered, and, on another hand,
English and French forces try to keep it. Now, Western
reporters report from Tobruk, which is further east from
Benghazi. And Tripoli seems to be firmly in the hands of
Gaddafi, and there are a lot of popular demonstrations
in support of him. I saw very cynical reports saying
that in the very worst case, even if English and French
succeed in dismembering Libya, and break away the
Benghazi piece, that’ll be quite a worthless piece,
because the oil isn’t there. But, again, that’s provided
if what they want is oil. But it’s also very possible
that what they want is to have a good place for a good
big military base in Tobruk and Benghazi to keep an eye
on Egypt. And that is something that also would make a
lot of sense, because nobody knows which way Egypt will
drift. If it will drift away from its present
pro-Israeli course, Israel will feel very upset, and, in
such a case, the United States, as a bigger sister of
Israel, will obviously step in, and, for such a case, a
good base outside Egypt will be very much suitable. But,
anyway, the first thing I’d like to say is to express
deep, deep regret that this intervention started. That
was extremely unnecessary. And it would be much, much
better if Libyans would be allowed to sort out their
developments themselves.
As you
know, actually, Gaddafi wrote letters to Cameron and
Sarkozy saying they have no right to interfere, and
there are some thoughts that this could lead to Gaddafi
holding Benghazi and a stalemate across the country.
What do you think the chances are that this will not be
quickly resolved, that they’ll have a stalemate
situation in weeks, or in days, or, maybe, even in
months?
Oh, that’s
how it looks now. It’s still difficult to know what will
happen, but Gaddafi has huge staying power. He is quite
a unique man. Well, he is not very young any more - but,
let’s say, he’s survived many bombings. Americans bombed
him, and killed his daughter, as you, maybe, remember,
some years ago. So, he’s survived a lot of attempts to
undo him and to conquer Libya. It’s not impossible if he
survives again, he is very much a fox, a very clever
ruler with a lot of ability, lot of guts. At it seems to
be that he also has a lot of support - not that much
support as he would like to have, and, obviously, he
made many mistakes by not democratizing his country, by
not letting people more chance to express their views
and their desire. There is, obviously, opposition. But,
you know, it doesn’t mean that all this opposition will
support submission to the colonial European forces.
What about
Gaddafi’s supporters? What is their number and
percentage, and are they also concerned by the
intervention? This intervention, actually, turned many
people toward Gaddafi, saying: “You know, we would have
liked to resolve our issues ourselves, without this
invasion.”
I think
that this last remark of yours is absolutely, exactly on
the point, exactly correct. That is exactly what it is.
People that until now would hate Gaddafi, how say:
“Well, if it is either Gaddafi or reoccupation by
European colonizers, let it be Gaddafi.” So, that’s
something that we are familiar with, in many countries,
in the face of foreign invasion, people say: “Let’s
forget about our internal dissension, let us present a
single united front. So, it’s very possible, and I see
that this view is shared by many observers - that,
actually the attack would strengthen Gaddafi rather than
bring him down.
Yes,
that’s definitely what everybody is feeling now. But how
long do you think Gaddafi can actually stay in power
under the attack by the US forces, by French forces, by
British forces? As far as I know, there are US
submarines posed to take part in the action if
necessary.
Well, so
much depends on so many things. It’s difficult to
prophesy. Today also was a day when, in the United
States, the first anti-war demonstrations took place in
Los Angeles and in New York, and, for tomorrow, they
plan more demonstrations in San Francisco. So, it’s not
impossible that the American public opinion will turn
against the war, because they feel that they had enough
of Afghanistan, and enough of Iraq and they don’t really
want more. So, that is also not impossible. Now, there
is also some element of farce in this great joy of
British and French politicians that now they have
something to show to their voters what for they were
elected for, and this seems to be some sentiment which
is so much outdated, showing so much of their military
bravery. And what is their bravery? Attacking a small
foreign country far away! So, it’s not really easy to
say now how it will go.
I see.
Now, what do you think will be the long-term
ramifications of this intervention?
You know,
one thing is clear - and that is something that is very
bad. Let’s tell the bad news first. The bad news is that
sovereignty became an empty word, and that is one of the
most important things. That re-emerging Russia tried to
make strong point saying that sovereignty should be
recognized, and sovereignty of every country should be
honored, this concept was severely undermined again.
Some people compare it with what happened in Kosovo, and
other people compare it with what happened in
Afghanistan or Iraq, anyway we see again that the NATO
forces try again to impose regime change, they try to
change the government, and what is very, very
disappointing is that Russia and China thought it’s good
enough to abstain and to stay away, instead of
supporting the great principle of sovereignty. We see
that in the same very time Bahrain, which is, as we
know, also a base for the US 5th fleet, also had
demonstrations, demonstrators were shot at, the country
was invaded by Saudi troops, and, somehow, nobody even
thought of it. So, it seemed to be very odd, and, I
think that the Russian political elite should make a
second thought about it. And they should, in my opinion,
regret their inaction.
I see.
Thank you so much for commenting at this late hour, and
I really appreciate it.